Went around with insurance appraiser today and thought I would drop you all a short note on some observations.  First SEVERAL disclaimers – the DRIEST corn we checked was 30-35% moisture, so to evaluate yield we had to use a “factor” for the growth stage of the corn – that presents BIG problems when trying to evaluate yields.  Based on the crop insurance guidelines, the most advanced stage of corn growth before moisture readings can be used is “extended”.  If you use a common ear weight of 18.5 pounds in 17.5 feet of row that equates to approx. 196 bushel – now before everyone gets excited, if you use the very next stage lower the “dough” stage, you get a yield estimate of 155 bushel – so the yields we estimated today could simply swing 40 bushel based on what stage the corn was in – and believe me that was a VERY fine line!!!

 So overall, judging yields with any kind of scientific process at this point is next to impossible.  Having said that, from my observations I do not think we have as good of corn as we raised in 2001.  It may be that if we get some rain the next day or two that will help us just enough to push us over 2001 yields, but at this point I am betting against it.

 One observation is how much variation there is in the field, I was fairly surprised by that as I expected a more uniform crop, but based on our checks I think we were just dry enough, especially late, that we will see fairly substantial yield variability, and if you remember one thing about 01 it was the consistency we saw, I don’t think that will be there this year.  Granted, it will all be good corn, no poor spots, but areas will stand out.  Since most all of us now have the ability to vary planting populations, it will be important to capture those areas, and very interesting to compare yield variability in the field to variability we saw with 50 bushel corn in 2002.. We should have some VERY nice data to set management zones for the 2006 corn crop!  Of course, this is all assuming a 2 year corn-bean rotation, where we have a three year rotation, it will be also be nice to observe corn yields in the high-yielding year of 01 compared to this year…

 Couple of items stand out – first is that it appears to me that the short-season corns will be better than I expected as compared to their mid and full season counterparts.  Based on 2001, where we had very good corn yields and short-season’s lost by 20-25 bushel I am conditioned to expect that.  However, it may be that even with comparable yields to 2001, short seasons are only 10-15 behind if that.  The only other hybrid observation I would make is that I am VERY disappointed in 34M93 at this point, Andy has been telling me of this disappointment in this hybrid for some time, and I have doubted him, seeing it in the field myself today didn’t give me too good of impression :(  Unfortunately it appears this is a “drought-only” corn which can’t produce in a good year…

 That’s the highlights from our tour, remember, our ability to “judge” a crop before it is harvested has a VERY, VERY poor track record (and I don’t mean just me, I mean anyone.. it is just VERY hard to accurately get a feel for a field of corn as far from full drydown as this corn is yet).  So take everything you just read – IF you are still reading by this point, with a grain of salt!

 Darin Grimm